Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
