A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
